Andrew G Haldane — Whose recovery?

It is a great pleasure to be here in Port Talbot. I want to discuss the UK’s economic fortunes. The past few weeks have been dominated by the run-up to the EU referendum vote and its aftermath. This has generated considerable uncertainty about the economy, about policy and about politics – a heady cocktail. I will come to those uncertainties, and their implications for monetary policy, at the end. But I wanted to start by assessing the UK’s economic recovery so far, as this provides important context for what happens next…

BIS
Andrew G Haldane: Whose recovery?
Speech by Mr Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, in Port Talbot, Wales, 30 June 2016.

Larry Elliott — Bank of England chief economist calls for big post-Brexit stimulus

The Bank of England’s chief economist has called for a big package of measures to support the UK’s post-Brexit economy, stressing the need for a prompt and robust response to the uncertainty.

Andy Haldane made it clear the Bank’s monetary policy committee would do more than merely cut interest rates from their already record low of 0.5% when it meets in August.

The Bank’s chief economist used a speech to warn that decisive action was required at a time when confidence had been dented by the shock referendum result.

“In my personal view, this means a material easing of monetary policy is likely to be needed, as one part of a collective policy response aimed at helping protect the economy and jobs from a downturn.

“Given the scale of insurance required, a package of mutually complementary monetary policy easing measures is likely to be necessary. And this monetary response, if it is to buttress expectations and confidence, needs I think to be delivered promptly as well as muscularly. By promptly I mean next month, when the precise size and extent of the necessary stimulatory measures can be determined as part of the August inflation report round.”

Ratchet up private debt with low interest and easy credit instead of public debt (increase fiscal deficit).

The Guardian
Bank of England chief economist calls for big post-Brexit stimulus

Larry Elliott